Signs That the "Catholic Democrat" Will Soon Be an Endangered Species

From Colleen Carroll Campbell:

Election-year polls have shown Catholic support about evenly split between Kerry and President George W. Bush, with churchgoing Catholics favoring Bush and those who rarely attend Mass preferring Kerry.

But other polls suggest that Bush may be pulling ahead among Catholic voters as a whole. In midsummer, Zogby International pollsters began seeing a significant Catholic shift toward the president in such swing states as Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Zogby senior political writer Fritz Wenzel told the Catholic News Service that increased attention on Kerry's pro-abortion policies combined with strong pro-life networks in those swing states was making the difference for Bush. The numbers show "concern about the legitimacy of the war in Iraq being overridden by ongoing discomfort with Kerry's stand on abortion," Wenzel said.

By the end of September, the difference was obvious to pollsters at the Barna Research Group, who found a "seismic shift" in support for the President among Catholics. In May, Kerry had led Bush 48 percent to 43 percent among Catholic voters. Late last month, a 22-point shift had put Bush in the lead, with 53 percent of Catholic voters supporting him and just 36 percent backing Kerry. Survey director George Barna said many of Bush's Catholic supporters "have traditionally voted Democratic, but have chosen a different course this time around."

The numbers remain in flux and conclusions are premature. A new Zogby poll suggests that Kerry may be regaining a slight edge among Catholics, though white Catholics — who tend to vote in greater numbers — continue to favor Bush. The race for the Catholic vote may be too close to call, but the fact that a Catholic Democrat running for president has failed to lock in the Catholic vote at this late stage should worry Kerry's team — and buoy the Bush camp.